AIA Forecaster: Technical Report
Published 10 Nov 2025 · arXiv · Rohan Alur
Overview
The AIA Forecaster is a large language model-based system designed for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. It combines agentic search, a supervisor agent, and statistical calibration techniques to improve forecasting accuracy.
Key Insights
- Performance on ForecastBench: The AIA Forecaster matches human superforecasters on the ForecastBench benchmark, surpassing previous LLM baselines. This is verifiable through the benchmark results.
- Market Consensus Benchmark: Although it underperforms against market consensus on a new benchmark, combining its forecasts with market data results in superior predictions. This demonstrates its additive value.
- State-of-the-Art Achievement: The system establishes a new standard in AI forecasting, providing practical recommendations for future research.
BFSI Relevance
- Why Relevant: Accurate forecasting is crucial for financial decision-making and risk management.
- Primary Sector: Financial Services
- Subsectors: Asset Management, Risk Management
- Actionable Implications: BFSI professionals should consider integrating AI-based forecasting tools to enhance decision-making and risk assessment processes.
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